Seasonality adjustments and data exclusions
Short promotional bursts and tracking outages disrupt machine learning models. Here is how seasonality adjustments and data exclusions protect automated bidding.
Managing short promotional conversion spikes#
Smart Bidding algorithms rely on historical conversion rates to set auction bids. During short, intense promotions (e.g., Black Friday 72-hour flash sales), conversion rates surge dramatically.
Without a seasonality adjustment, the algorithm will not react quickly enough to capture peak volume, and will subsequently overbid after the sale ends as explained in Microsoft Seasonality Adjustments Docs, 2026.
Configuring promotional seasonality windows#
Seasonality adjustments are designed for short events lasting between 1 and 14 days. Advertisers input start and end timestamps and the predicted conversion rate change (e.g., +50% conversion rate lift).
The algorithm immediately scales bids during the promotional window and automatically resets to standard historical bidding the moment the window concludes.
Seasonality adjustments should only be used for short events under 14 days. Longer seasonal shifts (e.g., full summer quarters) are handled natively by the algorithm.
Data exclusions for tracking outages and site errors#
When website crashes, checkout gateway failures, or UET tracking tag errors corrupt conversion data, Smart Bidding algorithms can misinterpret the zero-conversion period as a drop in commercial demand, lowering future bids.
Creating a Data Exclusion informs Microsoft to completely ignore that specific date range in algorithmic training datasets as documented in Microsoft Campaign Management Data Exclusion API, 2026.
Reporting integrity versus algorithmic training#
Data exclusions only affect algorithmic bidding calculations; they do not alter standard performance reporting tables or historical analytics charts.
Consult our Microsoft Ads Hub for complete operational hygiene checklists.
Seasonality Adjustments versus Data Exclusions#
The table below highlights when to apply Seasonality Adjustments versus Data Exclusions.
| Feature | Seasonality Adjustments | Data Exclusions |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Purpose | Inform AI of anticipated temporary conversion spikes | Erase corrupted or missing conversion data from training |
| Event Timing | Configured before the promotional event | Configured after a tracking outage or site error |
| Duration Range | 1 to 14 days maximum | Specific hours or days affected by data outage |
| Impact on Bids | Temporarily increases bid aggression during sale | Prevents algorithms from depressing bids post-outage |
Frequently asked questions#
When should I use a Seasonality Adjustment in Microsoft Ads?
Use seasonality adjustments for short promotional events (1 to 14 days) such as Black Friday or flash sales where conversion rates increase significantly above normal baselines.
How do Data Exclusions protect automated bidding?
Data exclusions tell machine learning models to ignore specific dates affected by website outages or broken tracking, preventing algorithms from reducing bids based on bad data.
Do Data Exclusions delete my historical reporting data?
No, data exclusions only remove data from Smart Bidding algorithmic training sets; standard performance reporting metrics remain unchanged.
How far in advance should I set up a Seasonality Adjustment?
Configure seasonality adjustments a few hours to a day before the promotional event begins to ensure seamless activation.
Can I use seasonality adjustments for long seasonal shifts like summer?
No, longer seasonal changes lasting several weeks or months are natively detected and handled by Microsoft's continuous machine learning models.
Read more on this topic#
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